The Tampa Bay Rays’ dramatic 12th-inning comeback against the Milwaukee Brewers has given Fox a valuable World Series lifeline — though a new financial analysis suggests the network’s downside may be limited even if the Fall Classic ends after five games.
Milwaukee entered Tuesday night with a 3-0 advantage in the best-of-seven series and came within three outs of securing the first World Series championship in the franchise’s 57-year history. Instead, Tampa Bay rallied to win, cutting the Brewers’ lead to 3-1 and keeping Fox’s hopes of a longer, more lucrative series alive.
The result matters for a broadcaster facing a markedly different matchup from last year, when the big-market L.A. Dodgers’ World Series repeat helped propel advertising revenue to record levels. This year’s pairing features Milwaukee, one of the sport’s smallest television markets, and a Tampa Bay team that is not considered a national TV draw.
When the Brewers won the first three games, media observers anticipated advertising shortfalls and potential make-goods for Fox. Tuesday’s turnaround ensured at least a Game 5 on Wednesday night, but the possibility of a quick conclusion remains significant.
No team has recovered from a 3-0 World Series deficit to force either a Game 6 or Game 7. The only Major League Baseball team to overcome that series hole did so in the 2004 American League Championship Series, when the Boston Red Sox defeated the New York Yankees.
The Financial Stakes for Fox
Despite the risk of a five-game finish, Guggenheim Securities maintains that Fox and parent company Fox Corp. are unlikely to suffer a major financial blow. The Wall Street firm issued its analysis ahead of Fox’s quarterly earnings report on Monday.
A Guggenheim team led by Michael Morris estimated that Fox generated approximately $370 million in revenue from the 2025 MLB postseason, an amount equal to roughly 7% of the company’s annual revenue.
Advertising revenue from the 2026 postseason currently stands at about $275 million, according to the firm. A sixth World Series game would increase that total to an estimated $324 million, while a full seven-game series would lift it to approximately $373 million.
The postseason is especially important because it produces about two-thirds of Fox’s annual MLB advertising revenue, Guggenheim said. Still, the firm argued that Fox’s accounting treatment of its sports-rights costs should soften the immediate earnings impact if Milwaukee closes out the series in Game 5.
Fox’s SEC filings say the company amortizes multiyear sports rights primarily according to the relationship between revenue attributable to the current period and estimated remaining revenue under each contract. In practical terms, Guggenheim said a shorter postseason would reduce both quarterly revenue and the rights expense recognized during that period.
Fox’s current MLB agreement runs through 2028 and is reportedly worth $729 million annually. Morris estimated that about 27% of the earnings impact would not be recognized in the current-year quarter. That cost would be deferred rather than eliminated, shifting into the 2027 and 2028 seasons.
Guggenheim reaffirmed its “buy” rating on Fox shares and maintained a 12-month price target of $85. Fox stock was trading at about $64 at midday Wednesday after declining 13% during 2026 to date.
Audience Results Beat Some Expectations
The first two games, played Friday and Saturday, averaged 12.26 million and 10.85 million viewers, respectively, according to Nielsen. Those results were approximately 7% below 2025 levels, but Fox Corp. President of Insights and Analytics Michael Mulvihill said the audience was “better than most were predicting” and “better than anything out there that’s not the NFL.”
Mulvihill also pushed back on concerns surrounding the participating cities, writing on X: “More important, this ‘small market’ series affirms one of the bedrock appeals of sports: Everyone has a chance.”
ShowBiz Take
The Rays’ comeback changes the immediate narrative for Fox without eliminating its exposure. Every additional game offers the network more advertising revenue, and a Game 6 would substantially narrow the gap between this postseason’s current total and the record-setting 2025 result.
At the same time, Guggenheim’s analysis indicates that the financial outcome is more complicated than simply counting missing games. If the World Series ends Wednesday, lower revenue would be partly accompanied by lower rights expense in the quarter, limiting the near-term earnings damage while deferring some costs into later seasons.
What Happens Next?
The Brewers will have another opportunity to win the championship in Wednesday night’s Game 5, while the Rays must extend a comeback no World Series team has completed from a 3-0 deficit.
Beyond the championship, MLB rights holders and fans face another unresolved concern. The collective bargaining agreement between players and owners is scheduled to expire in December, creating the possibility of a lockout and the cancellation of games in 2027.