Gower Street Analytics has raised its forecast for 2026 global ticket sales to $35.7 billion, a 2.9% increase from the projection presented at CinemaCon in April.

The updated outlook, built from Rentrak actuals and Gower estimates, would put worldwide box office 6.3% ahead of last year. If the industry reaches that mark, 2026 would deliver the strongest global annual result since 2019, when ticket sales totaled $42.3 billion.

Although the new estimate would remain well below that 2019 benchmark, the upward revision follows a record North American summer and a run of major international hits across Hollywood, independent horror and Chinese cinema.

A Sharply Divided Global Picture

Gower’s $35.7 billion forecast consists of $10.5 billion from North America, $19.7 billion from international markets excluding China and another $5.5 billion from China.

Those projections point to markedly different trajectories across the three segments. North America would rise 18% compared with 2025, while international markets outside China would climb nearly 14%. China, however, is projected to fall approximately 26%.

The latest Global Rentrak Substack attributed China’s softer performance so far to lower admissions and ticket prices, while also noting that horror has been performing strongly in the market.

The contrasting regional results make the increased worldwide estimate especially notable. Projected growth in North America and other international territories would more than offset the anticipated decline in China, leaving the global business on course for its best annual total in seven years.

Blockbusters, Horror Breakouts and Chinese Hits

A handful of films have powered the year’s global business. Sony and Marvel’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads the titles cited with $2.5 billion, followed by The Odyssey at $1.8 billion. Michael and Super Mario Galaxy Movie have each reached $1 billion. Toy Story 5 is listed at $1.1 million in the supplied figures.

Independent horror has also produced substantial breakouts. Obsession has earned $525 million, while Backrooms has reached $400.6 million.

China’s domestic releases include the racing-franchise film Pegasus 3, which has approached $654 million. Once Upon a Time in the Middle East has grossed $356 million, and Kung Fu Soccer has taken $349 million.

The summer season supplied another major signal of momentum. North America generated an all-time summer record of $4.76 billion, according to Rentrak. Global summer box office reached $14.5 billion, its best result since the $14.9 billion recorded in 2019.

ShowBiz Take

The significance of the revised forecast is not that the box office has returned to its 2019 peak—it has not. Instead, a $35.7 billion finish would establish a new post-2019 high while showing that substantial growth is possible even with a projected double-digit decline in China.

The regional breakdown also underscores where the expected gains are coming from: an 18% domestic increase and nearly 14% growth across international markets excluding China. Combined with a record North American summer and the strongest global summer total since 2019, those figures give the revised annual outlook meaningful support.

The year’s successes have also extended beyond one kind of release. Large-scale studio titles dominate the biggest grosses, but independent horror films and Chinese-language releases have contributed hundreds of millions of dollars to the wider theatrical market.

What Happens Next?

The 2026 calendar still has several major releases ahead. Toho’s Godzilla Minus Zero is due to be released stateside by GKids, while Warner Bros. has The Cat in the Hat and Dune: Part Three still to come.

Lionsgate’s remaining slate includes The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping. Focker-in-Law is also ahead, with Universal handling domestic distribution and Paramount handling international markets.

Disney has Hexed, while Disney and Marvel have Avengers: Doomsday. Sony’s Jumanji: Open World is also among the titles yet to arrive.

Those releases will help determine whether the industry can meet Gower Street’s upgraded $35.7 billion target—and formally secure the strongest worldwide box office year since 2019.